There’s significant decay in the days leading up to the last day, just not at that level of crazy. These days, a top-600 rating with 24 hours left is insufficient to finish top-1200, and it’s not just a last-day effect. It’s well known that the rank decay near the end of the month in Mythic Constructed is incredibly severe. The change making Gold +2 per win/-1 per loss likely turbocharged the issues from #6.Giving everybody similar initial ratings when they make Mythic leads to issues at the end of the month.Performance before Mythic seems to have only slight impact on where you’re initially placed in Mythic.Early in the month, the system is more complicated.The minimum change in rating is ~5 points in a Bo1 match and ~10 points in a Bo3 match.After convergence, the Bo1 K-value is ~20.5.
That comes out to around 11% Mythic later in the month. Expected win% is constrained to a ~25%-~75% range, regardless of rating difference, for both Bo1 and Bo3.There is no detectable Glicko-ness to Mythic constructed ratings in the second half of the month.It’s just as exploitable as you should think it is.There is rating-based pairing in ranked constructed below Mythic (as well as in Mythic).The details are also seriously nerdy, so reading all of this definitely isn’t for everybody. If I get enough data, I can make a rank-decay curve for every rank at once, among other things.īrought to you by the all-time undisputed king of the percent gamersĪpologies for the writing- Some parts I’d written before, some I’m just writing now, but there’s a ton to get out, a couple of necessary experiments weren’t performed or finished yet, and I’m sure I’ll find things I could have explained more clearly.
#Arena status magic full
Note: If you’re playing in numbered Mythic Constructed during the rest of May, and/or you’d like to help me crowdsource enough logfiles to get a full picture of the Rank # – Rating relationship during the last week, please visit and DM/share.
Edit: A summary, including some updates, is now at
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